Sunday, April 21, 2013

Scoreboard Watching: Who Will Texas Play (and How)?

Mike Hedden (Credit: Christina Shapiro/Texas Stars)
All that is settled as we roll into the final day of the regular season is that Texas is the top seed in the West. Their opponent is still unknown and will be settled today. Let's break down who the possible contenders are and how they would get to the 8th seed. Arrange your scoreboard watching appropriately.

Milwaukee
Current rank: 8th
Best possible rank: 6th
Worst possible rank: 9th
Stars record against: 2-0-0-0
Today's game: at Peoria, 5:05 PM


All wins or all OT/SO losses by Milwaukee, Rochester and OKC get us to Milwaukee in eight. Everyone moves up by the same number of points, and none of the rankings change.

Milwaukee can get to 6th if they win and OKC loses in regulation and Rochester loses in any way. They would pass OKC and Rochester on the tie break with more regulation and OT wins (37 v. 35/32).

They can get to 7th if they tie Rochester in points (RCH gets OTL/SOL and MIL win, or RCH gets regulation loss and MIL an OTL/SOL). Milwaukee has a superior ROW (regulation and overtime wins).

If they lose, Milwaukee drops to 9th by virtue of the season series between the Ads and IceHogs. They are tied on ROW at 37, but Rockford has more points (15) than Milwaukee (11).

Rochester
Current rank: 7th
Best possible rank: 6th
Worst possible rank: 8th
Stars record against: 2-0-0-0
Today's game: at Hamilton, 2:00 PM


Rochester can slip to eighth with a Milwaukee point and Rochester loss. Their ROW of 32 hurts them a lot here. That's how Milwaukee slips by them (MIL ROW: 37). All the teams around them are higher in that regard.

They can make it to 6th with a win and everyone else losing, but again the ROW prevents them from passing Houston (35).

Rockford
Current rank: 9th
Best possible rank: 8th
Worst possible rank: 9th
Stars record against: 2-1-0-1
Today's game: No game


Rockford finished their season with the win at Texas last night and had to have it to keep their hopes alive. All IceHogs fans are going to become the biggest Peoria Rivermen fans you've ever seen today as the Ads must lose in regulation for the Hogs to have a playoff berth. If the Ads take it to OT, they will clinch their spot. If Milwaukee loses in regulation, Rockford slides into eighth thanks to the second tiebreaker, season series points (15 v. 11).

Oklahoma City
Current rank: 6th
Best possible rank: 5th
Worst possible rank: 8th
Stars record against: 4-7-0-1
Today's game: v. Houston, 4:00 PM


This one didn't seem possible, but there's actually a chance. If Milwaukee and Rochester win but OKC loses in regulation, the Barons will slip to eighth. Despite being tied on points, Milwaukee would again have the tie break on ROW (37 or 36 v. 35).

The Barons are playing Houston head to head and could pass them with a regulation win, which is one way they get to fifth. If they win in OT, they will tie with Houston on points but have a better ROW and also move to fifth. If they win in a shootout, their ROW will not increase and they will be tied at 35. Houston will maintain fifth if that is the case thanks to a 16-9 series points record this season.

3 comments:

  1. I could care-a-less who they play. The thing to watch is the NHL and the thing to hope for is Dallas doesn't make the playoffs. The way Texas has been playing they really need the guys in Dallas back to be a real one seed. And just a few weeks ago things looked so bright.

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  2. I agree Carl. If this team doesn't solve the issues at home in a hurry, seeding is not going to matter at all, because they'll be watching the playoffs from home.

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  3. I dunno that it's all as dire as all that. Coach Desjardines has been resting a lot of the remaining top skaters for weeks - even before we officially clinched. We were far enough out front that he had this luxury.

    Once the playoffs start, you'll see the stars back to playing a stable set of top lines. As long as the rest didn't upset line chemistry, they'll make a decent, if not exceptional playoff run even without getting anyone back from Dallas.

    If they DO get talent back, you have to be disappointed with anything short of a Finals appearance.

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