Breaking Down the West Division Playoff Picture Using Maths

Alright guys, I'm gonna bust out the maths here today. Inspired by a post from Defending Big D's Brandon Bibb called "Western Conference Playoff Primer", I decided to break down the AHL's West Division using maths. Maths are my expertise by trade, being a mechanical engineer.

Here are the data:

SEED	TEAM	GP	PTS	PROJ	#1	#2	#3	#4	REQ%
1	Chicago	62	83	107	24	14	14	11	0.306
2	Rockford	65	79	97	28	18	18	15	0.500
3	Milwaukee	61	74	97	33	23	23	20	0.526
4	Texas	62	73	94	34	24	24	21	0.583
5	San Antonio	62	65	84	E	32	32	29	0.806
6	Houston	63	64	81	E	33	33	30	0.882
7	Peoria	60	61	81	E	36	36	33	0.825

Here's the explanation.

So first we've taken all of the data for the West Division standings accurate to today (March 4th). Then, we've determined each teams current points rate, that is, the number of points they have accumulated divided by the number of games they have played. If we multiply this by 80, the number of games in the AHL season, we can determine a best-guess estimate of the number of points the team will finish with. This number appears in the column labeled "PROJ".

Now we get tricky. The next four columns show the predicted number of points that each team needs to accumulate in order to finish in that position in the division. The best way to explain this is with an example.

So, let's look at how many point Texas would need to finish #2 in the division. We see this number is 24. This number was calculated by taking the current number of points Texas has (73) and subtracting it from the projected point total of the currently expected #2 finisher (Rockford/Milwaukee at 97).

The "E" symbol on the table indicates that the team has been realistically eliminated from contention for that position given their record and the record of the teams above them. No teams have been mathematically eliminated from any positions yet. Peoria could still win all their games and Chicago lose all of theirs. Unlikely, but possible. This is just an estimate based on past performance.

Finally, in the last column, we have the REQ% value. This is the required points percentage for the remainder of the season for each team in order to achieve a playoff spot. You can see from this that Peoria, for example, must earn 82.5% of the remaining points on its schedule to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. That's 33/40 points. Whoa.

So what does this mean for Texas?

First of all, it's good news. You can see that the projections show that San Antonio, Houston, and Peoria all need to win 80% of their games from here on out to have a chance at the playoffs. San Antonio has been heating up though and could honestly get an 80% winning rate the rest of the way out. Trade deadline deals may weaken their team beyond redemption, however.

Texas only needs to win 58.3% of their games (21/36 points) to realistically go to the playoffs. I say 'only' just because of the larger numbers required for the #5, #6, and #7 teams. You may also notice that while a #1 seed would require 33/36 points, a #2 seed would only require 24/36 points.

Now, I will grant that the head-to-head matchups remaining in the season between all of the West Division teams certainly complicate this model. However, I feel like these data give creedence to a lot of things we already know about the division playoff race.

I support a division that is less awesome than the West Division. Do you have data for me, too?

I've done this for the other divisions and posted the results below. Please note that the "L" symbol indicates that a team is a "Lock" for getting at least that position in the final rankings. Also, when a team is a lock or eliminated from 4th place contention, the REQ% column is no longer valid for that team.

North

SEED	TEAM	GP	PTS	PROJ	#1	#2	#3	#4	REQ%
1	Hamilton	62	88	114	26	2	1	L	--
3	Rochester	62	70	90	E	20	19	15	0.417
2	Abbotsford	65	72	89	E	18	17	13	0.433
4	Manitoba	64	68	85	E	22	21	17	0.531
5	Lake Erie	62	63	81	E	27	26	22	0.611
6	Toronto	63	58	74	E	32	31	27	0.794
7	Grand Rapids	62	54	70	E	36	35	31	0.861

East

SEED	TEAM	GP	PTS	PROJ	#1	#2	#3	#4	REQ%
1	Hershey	61	96	126	30	L	L	L	--
2	Albany	63	72	91	E	19	16	13	0.382
3	Norfolk	64	70	88	E	21	18	15	0.469
4	W-B/S	61	65	85	E	26	23	20	0.526
5	Adirondack	61	60	79	E	31	28	25	0.658
6	Syracuse	61	58	76	E	33	30	27	0.711
7	Binghamton	60	53	71	E	38	35	32	0.800

Atlantic*

SEED	TEAM	GP	PTS	PROJ	#1	#2	#3	#4	REQ%
1	Worcester	61	79	104	25	23	15	12	0.316
2	Portland	61	78	102	26	24	16	13	0.342
3	Manchester	62	73	94	31	29	21	18	0.500
4	Lowell	63	72	91	32	30	22	19	0.559
5	Providence	62	65	84	E	E	29	26	0.722
6	Bridgeport	63	63	80	E	E	31	28	0.824
7	Hartford	62	61	79	E	E	33	30	0.833
8	Springfield	64	52	65	E	E	E	E	--

* - Usually the top four teams in a division qualify for the playoffs but, from the AHL FAQ:

"There is one possible exception to the qualification rules in 2009-10: if the fifth-place team in the Atlantic Division finishes with more points than the fourth-place team in the East Division, it would cross over and compete in the East Division playoffs."

Providence is pretty close to achieving this and robbing the Penguins of a spot in the playoffs.

In other news, the Hershey Bears are scary good...