|(Credit: Texas Stars)|
In order to pass Ontario for the second seed, the Stars will need to grab all four points from the weekend set with San Antonio, giving them a .599 points percentage to end the season. Ontario can't beat that unless they pick up three or four points in their final two games of the year. Those two contests are against Stockton at home and in Bakersfield. Ontario has dominated Stockton all year (6-1) but struggled against Bakersfield (3-4-1-1). The Stars themselves have had mixed results against the Rampage, so their weekend task is no cakewalk either.
Whether Texas plays Tucson or Ontario in round one is a mixed bag as far as the season series. Each has yielded only one win for Texas (Tucson: 1-1-2, Ontario 1-1-1-1). However, if you're going to play Ontario, you'd want home ice when you do.
There is also a very slight chance that Texas plays San Diego in round one, but that's pretty unlikely. The Stars and Gulls would both need to win out, and Ontario would have to lose both games.
We'll know everything we need to know by Saturday evening for sure.