Texas' Most Likely Finish Still #3, But Anything is Possible with Three Games Left

(Credit: Texas Stars)

With three games left in the season for Texas, the Stars are in the playoffs but still have no idea who they will play and where they will start that series. Let's break down the scenarios.

The Grand Rapids Griffins have locked up first place in the division and are battling it out with Providence for the best record in the AHL. Texas cannot win the division, but every single playoff spot from second to fifth is still possible.

The Stars are in a rough spot now with only three games remaining. Everyone they are competing against has more games remaining and thus more chances to earn points. And even though it seems unlikely, Iowa and Rockford are still in the fight barely. Everything is also complicated by the fact that all remaining games for this group are being played against each other within the division.

The most likely finish for Texas is still #3. If the Stars beat Manitoba tomorrow, that outcome becomes even more certain. If Texas loses tomorrow, then everyone here needs to become a far more attentive out-of-town scoreboard watcher. There are several high-leverage games for Texas' fate as Chicago, Manitoba and Milwaukee all play against each other in the coming week. The rooting interests aren't clear either. When Chicago plays Manitoba on Wednesday, for example, the Stars could be rooting for Chicago if Manitoba is close to beating them for #3 seed. Or they could be rooting for Manitoba if they have a chance at taking Chicago's #2 seed.

So, it's complicated.

Before we start, Texas sits on 75 points and has a maximum point total of 81 with three games left.

#2 seed

With Chicago's current point total at 78 and five games remaining, Texas is not in control of its destiny for second place. If Chicago earns four points in any fashion in the remaining five games, they will earn home ice against their first round opponent, which may not be the Stars. It seems more likely than not that Chicago will meet that moment, especially given their penchant for overtime and shootout losses this year.

#3 seed

In order to lock down the #3 seed, Texas needs to outrun Manitoba and Milwaukee, the only two teams who have a chance to get there. The best case and easiest scenario for Texas to get to #3 is to just win all their games. They have full control over their destiny in that scenario and need no help from the rest of the division.

Manitoba can achieve 80 points. If Texas beats Manitoba tomorrow, the Stars will have 77 points and Manitoba's maximum will drop to 78. The Stars will need two more points (or two lost by the Moose) to achieve the #3 seed. The Stars do not currently hold the first tiebreaker against the Moose (Texas is at 26 regulation wins and Manitoba at 28). Owning the points outright would avoid any unpleasant tiebreak conversation.

For Milwaukee to achieve the third seed...

• Milwaukee must earn nine of their remaining ten available points
• The Stars cannot earn more than two points (six remaining)
• The Moose cannot earn more than five points (eight remaining)

Texas will be tied with Milwaukee's maximum point total for the year if the Ads win tonight. However, Texas holds the first tiebreaker over the Ads, and there is no way for them to overcome the imbalance. The Stars have 26 regulation wins and the Ads have 18. Even if the Ads win out, they can only get to 23. If Texas wins tomorrow or the Ads lose tonight, then Milwaukee cannot achieve the third seed.

#4 seed

Manitoba is the biggest threat to pass Texas and push the Stars to the play-in game. Every point lost in the coming three games lowers the top end mark for Texas and gives Manitoba a chance to pass. Manitoba is currently at 72 points. The first and best thing that Manitoba can do to put themselves in the position to be the third seed (and put Texas into the play-in) is to win outright on Sunday.

#5 seed

If Texas loses all of their games and Manitoba and Milwaukee keep winning, then the Stars drop to #5. Still in, but limping in.