With Six Games Left, Texas Has a Legitimate Shot at Home Ice Advantage

(Credit: Texas Stars)

On Friday night, the Texas Stars clinched the playoffs with seven games left to play.

Nicholas Kingman discussed here Sunday how unbelievable that feat is from where the team started. Go read that one before I drop another one on you.

This team has a legitimate shot at earning home ice advantage in the first round.

Really.

• Texas sits only two points back of the Chicago Wolves, who they just bounced in back-to-back games to end their regular season series with a 7-1 record. 
  
  
• With only six games remaining for both teams, Chicago faces a strength of schedule up at .546 with games against Grand Rapids, Milwaukee (3), Manitoba and Rockford.
  
  
• In their final six games, Texas' strength of schedule is the lowest in the league at .462. The Stars close against Iowa (2), Manitoba (2) and Rockford (2). Only Manitoba looks to make the postseason while Iowa and Rockford are the third- and fifth-worst teams in the league.

Texas absolutely has a puncher's chance here at closing out the season as the second-best team in the division. It may be by the thinnest of margins, but the Stars have the whole thing right in front of them. Winning two against Chicago in those always important 'four-point games' was crucial to making this possible. If Texas had lost the weekend series, we wouldn't be discussing this with the same conviction.

And not to get into it too much (but of course we will because that's what we're here for) the Stars also have some nice things going for them on the tiebreaks, as of this morning.

1. Regulation wins -- Texas 26-23
2. Regulation and overtime wins -- Texas 31-28
3. Total games won -- Texas 35-31
4. Points in the season series -- Texas 14-3.

Points in the season series is already settled. The tiebreakers wouldn't go any further than that because Texas would win on that one. Everything before that win change before the final horn on the regular season, but Texas is in pole position for a tiebreak if it comes to it.

Another interesting thing to note about Texas and Chicago that will surely come up if the most likely scenario comes to pass and they play each other in the playoffs: the season series of eight games between these teams didn't start until January 10. By that point, the Stars were past their doldrums and well on the way to figuring it out. In those games against Chicago, Texas is 7-1. They're also 24-12 in the 2026 calendar year. Their 7-game winning streak from January 18 to February 7 is tied for third-longest such streak in the league behind behemoths Grand Rapids and Providence.

So just take that as you will in determining how this Stars team is going to show up for Game 1.