Analyzing Texas' Scenarios for First Round Matchups

(Credit: Logan Foust/Texas Stars)

OK, now what?

Last night's Milwaukee victory over Chicago means that the Ads have claimed the division and Texas, no matter what happens tonight, is locked into the second slot in the division. However, there is maneuvering still to happen to determine who will be their opponent.

The Stars will play either Chicago or Grand Rapids depending on the results of those games tonight. Texas' own game against Manitoba will have no bearing on their position in the standings or their first round opponent.

Grand Rapids plays at Iowa this evening at 6 PM. The Wolves host Rockford at 7 PM. Chicago trails Grand Rapids by 2 points.

The most clear paths here involved the Griffins game, which is luckily starting at 6 PM instead of 7. If Grand Rapids gets any points at all, they cannot be caught for third and will be the Stars' opponent in the first round.

If Grand Rapids falls in regulation, then Chicago must earn a win of any type to tie Grand Rapids on points. Chicago owns the first tie breaker, regulation wins, 28-27. Grand Rapids will max at 27 in this scenario, so it will be the Wolves in 3rd position.

The below table simply summarizes the outcomes. Essentially, the only way Texas plays Chicago is if Grand Rapids loses in regulation and Chicago wins in any way.

	CHI win	CHI OTL/SOL	CHI loss
GRG win	GRG	GRG	GRG
GRG OTL/SOL	GRG	GRG	GRG
GRG reg loss	CHI	GRG	GRG

In both cases, Texas will start their first round series on the road in a 2-3, best of five format. Grand Rapids has a hellacious arena schedule that looks like it will cause problems for whoever needs to play their next weekend. The Grand Rapids Rise pro volleyball team and several local graduation ceremonies have already claimed prime weekend spots. In Chicago, Allstate Arena is far more open the weekend in question (May 2-4).

Texas' home slate will actually be determined partly by opponent based on how rough the GR arena availability is. The Stars will hope that the answer is clear before the end of their game tonight so they can at least announce the date of Game 3 to the Texas faithful before they head for the parking lot.