Considering Possible Texas Stars Playoff Scenarios and the Elephant in the Room

(Credit: Texas Stars)

It's officially post-All-Star and this year post-Olympics. The trade deadline looms. March starts this weekend, and I regret to inform you that we'll all jump ahead by an hour in just a week and a half.

Sorry about that.

This time of year also brings the start of playoff speculation in the American Hockey League. Due to the unbelievable start they had to their season (and their continued strong play), the Griffins could be the first team to clinch a playoff spot this evening if they can defeat Manitoba.

Texas, somehow and someway, found its footing after a once-in-a-decade bad start to the season. Now, we are honestly and truly discussing potential first round playoff matchups for the Stars. You could have made a decent amount of money betting on this outcome back in November. The odds weren't looking good.

Illusions in the Standings

The very first thing to note about the standings is that they are an illusion. Texas had an absolutely packed schedule up until now and had, until Sunday, played five more games than the team behind them in the division, Manitoba. When you shake out the standings by point percentage, things look a bit more rational. Manitoba, with 46 games played, has a 0.554 points percentage to Texas' 0.520 and the two swap places in the standings.

Based on where Manitoba is now, Texas would need to finish the season with an additional 28 points more than they have now in the remaining 22 games. That's 14-8 or a .636 win percentage. That rate may sound elevated but consider how Texas has been playing since the new year started. On Jan 1, Texas sat at 11-15-3-1. Since then, they've torn up the standings with a 13-7 record, winning at nearly a 2:1 rate and sitting exactly on track for those 80 or so points they would need to best Manitoba.

Wait, Why Are We Avoiding the 4/5 Matchup?

Of course, it's better to win more games. That's a simple sports statement. You want to win, not to lose.

But the Stars winning more and earning that third seed gets them a date with the Chicago Wolves and a home start in a best-of-five series that they'll have to win on the road if they want to win it. Texas is evens with Chicago so far this year at one apiece.

The 4/5 matchup, which also guarantees two home dates if not three, would be against Milwaukee. The Stars are 6-2 against the Admirals this season as their perennial playoff foes have stumbled from their high heights much as the Stars had earlier in the season.

Look, I know it sounds insane to say you'd rather have the 4/5 than the 2/3 matchup, but you'd at least have home ice advantage, an opponent you've won against consistently and therefore a good chance to advance. Of course, all of this might be moot because...

The Elephant Griffin in the Room

No matter where Texas, Chicago, Manitoba or Milwaukee (or Rockford maybe) land in the playoff race, there's a very, very slim chance than anyone but the Grand Rapids Griffins advances out of the division. The Griffins heard footsteps behind them from Providence and rattled off a 6-0 streak and 8-2 in their last ten. They're back to cooking with gas, cruising at 0.830.

Is the entire Central Division just a waiting room to die by the sword of the Griffins in May? Perhaps, but there should be some fun times before we get there.

The Stars return home from their Midwest swing for a pair against San Diego starting Friday at 7 PM.