Thursday, April 11, 2019

Texas Stars Playoff Hopes on Life Support After Zero Point Game

(Credit: Andy Nietupski/Texas Stars)
Five out of six points. Coming into the week, that was the line that Texas needed to hit to reasonably have a shot at the postseason. With last night's regulation loss, the Stars can only gather four this week and might have seen their playoff dreams die on the vine Wednesday night. Let's break it down.

First of all, Texas needs to get four points the rest of the way this week. If Texas loses in regulation on Friday, they're eliminated. End of story. Their max points of 82 will put them below the established line at 83, and that'll be all she wrote.

If Texas collects three of four points, there is a chance that they could limp into the playoffs if Iowa collects no more points in two remaining games and Manitoba collects no more than two. If that occurs, three teams would be tied at 83 points and the tie break of ROW would come into play.  If Rockford gets three points as well, then four teams would be tied up. Manitoba and Texas are tied at 35 but Iowa and Rockford sit at 31, so that would be a major factor. The final tie break is season series record. Manitoba owns that break with Texas, so the Stars must beat Manitoba outright or hope the Moose's remaining victory comes in a shootout (and Texas's does not).

And by the way, seventh place Rockford could also just win their last two games and negate the above scenario entirely.

If Texas does collect all four points, they will sit at 84. They own the tiebreak over Milwaukee, if the Ads don't collect anymore points on the season. Iowa and Manitoba could both eclipse the 84 point mark easily with an 87 point max still possible. Any finish is still possible for the five teams gunning for the last two spots. Nearly any combination you can imagine, including 7th place Rockford finishing 3rd overall, is still in the cards.

It's going to be a mad dash to the finish.

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